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Home Price Growth at 6-Year High, According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through January 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller 1Home Price Indices, a leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed average home prices increased 7.3% for the 10-City Composite and 8.1% for the 20-City Composite in the 12 months ending in January 2013.

All 20 cities posted year-over-year gains with Phoenix leading the way with a gain of 23.2%. Nineteen of the 20 cities showed acceleration in their year-over-year returns. Despite posting a positive double-digit annual return, Detroit was the only city to show a deceleration. After 28 months of negative annual returns, New York came into positive territory in January

Two headline composites posted their highest year-over-year increases since summer 2006, says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. This Marks the highest increase since the housing bubble burst.

After more than two years of consecutive year-over-year declines, New York reversed trend and posted a positive return in January. The Southwest (Phoenix and Los Vegas) plus San Francisco posted the highest annual increases; they were also among the hardest hit by the housing bust. Atlanta and Dallas their highest year-over-year gains.

Economic data continues to support the housing recovery. Single-family home building permits starts posted double-digit year-over-year increases in February 2013. Despite a slight uptick in foreclosure filings, numbers are still down 25% year-over-year. Steady employment and low borrowing rates pushed inventories down to their lowest post-recession levels.

As of January 2013, average home prices across the United States are back to their autumn 2003 levels for both the 10-City and the 20-City Composites. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the decline for both Composites is approximately 29-30% through January 2013. The January 2013 levels for both Composites are approximately 8-9% from their dip in early 2012.

In January 2013 nine cities—Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Francisco and Tampa—and both Composites posted positive monthly returns Dallas was the only MSA where the level remained flat.

In terms of annual rates of change, all 20 cities as well as both Composites posted positive change. Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, and San Francisco were the eight MSA’s to report double-digit annual returns. Additional content on the housing market may also be found on the S&P Dow Jones Indices Blog www.housingviews.com

January Home Prices Rise 0.3 Percent

The latest FNC Residential Price Index® (RPI) indicates that U.S. property values continued to recover through January—the 11th consecutive month of rising prices. Despite the uneven pace of price gains across different geographical markets, there are clear signs that the housing recovery is increasingly widespread.

A limited housing supply and declining foreclosure sales are contributing to the recovery of underlying property values. The average list-to-sale price ratio increased to 93.5 in January, compared to 90.3 during the same period a year ago; in other words, the average asking price discount dropped to 6.5 percent from 9.7 percent. Foreclosures, as a percentage of total home sales, were 20.2 percent in January, down from 26.9 percent a year ago.

Based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties (existing and new homes) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, the FNC 100-MSA composite index shows that January home prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month and were up 5.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from the same period in 2012.] The 30-MSA and 10-MSA composite indices show similar trends of rising prices, with the 10-MSA composite accelerating more rapidly at 0.8 percent month-over-month and 7.2 percent year-over-year.

FNC’s RPI is the mortgage industry’s first hedonic price index built on a comprehensive database that blends public records of residential sales prices with real-time appraisals of property and neighborhood attributes. As a gauge of underlying home values, the RPI excludes sales of foreclosed homes, which are frequently sold with large price discounts, reflecting poor property conditions.

Seventeen of the component markets tracked by the FNC 30-MSA composite index show higher prices in January. The strong price momentum continues in Phoenix and Las Vegas where prices were up 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent in January after rising 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, in December.

Year-over-year, the two cities saw prices rise 28.6 percent and 12.5 percent. The January price declines seen in the other 13 markets are largely attributable to seasonal fluctuations. Home prices have bottomed out in these markets. On a year-over-year basis, all 30 component markets show higher prices from a year ago, but it is clear that the degree of market improvement remains inconsistent nationwide.

Although home prices have improved significantly in the last 12 months, a six-year price comparison shows that current prices remain well below their near-peak levels. On average, today’s home prices are about 27.5 percent below January 2007. In hard-hit markets such as Las Vegas, Orlando, Miami, and Riverside, Calif., home prices are only half of what they were six years ago.

Freddie Says: Mortgage Rates Steady

Freddie Mac recently released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates largely holding steady from the previous week, remaining near their 65-year record lows, and continuing to provide support for the housing recovery.

Results showed that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.52 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending March 7, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 3.51 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.88 percent.

Additionaly, the 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.76 percent with an average 0.7 point, the same as last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.13 percent.

The survey shows that the 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.63 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.61 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.81 percent.

The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.63 percent this week with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.64 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.73 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for the Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

"With gross domestic product growing only 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, inflation remains at bay and consequently mortgage rates low,” says Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.. In fact, the price index of personal consumption expenditures rose only 0.1 percent in January which was below the market consensus forecast. Moreover, these low mortgage rates are helping to revive the housing market. For instance the CoreLogic® home price index rose 9.7 percent between January 2012 and 2013, marking the largest annual increase since April 2006."

For more information, visit www.FreddieMac.com.

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What Do Homebuyers Really Want?

Many in the housing industry are wondering not only what today’s home buyers really want, but also what they are ready to leave behind in light of current economic realities. A new study recently released by NAHB, What Home Buyers Really Want, was designed to answer these questions, and more specifically, to provide the most current and accurate information on buyer preferences so that NAHB members can deliver the home (and community) that today’s buyers want and are willing to pay for.

So what do home buyers really want? The first answer is energy efficiency. Four of the top most wanted features involve saving energy: 94 percent of home buyers want energy-star rated appliances, 91 percent want an energy-star rating for the whole home, 89 percent want energy-star rated windows, and 88 percent want ceiling fans.

The second message buyers are sending is they want help keeping their home organized. The laundry room is wanted by 93 percent of buyers; in fact, 57 percent consider it essential and would be unlikely to buy a home without it. This shows that most buyers want to keep the dirty laundry contained in a room and away from plain view. Moreover, nine out of ten buyers want a linen closet in the bathroom to help keep towels and toiletries organized. Space in the garage to store bikes, sports equipment, or gardening tools also ranks high on the buyers’ wish list: 86 percent want it. And a walk-in pantry in the kitchen is something most buyers care a lot about as well (85 percent).

What features should builders be careful about including in a typical new home? First and foremost, an elevator. Seventy percent of buyers reject it, meaning they would be unlikely to buy a home that included it. Interestingly, four of the next five most unwanted features are not about the home itself, but about the community. For example, 66 percent of buyers do not want to live in a golf course community, 56 percent reject the idea of living in a high density community, 48 percent do not want a gated community, and 44 percent would not buy a home in a mixed use community.

More than half of all buyers also discard the option of having only a shower stall in the master bathroom with no tub (51 percent), and many are saying ‘no’ to two-story spaces as well. About 43 percent of buyers do not want a two-story family room and 38 percent feel the same way about a two-story entry foyer. Many buyers now consider these large, open spaces as energy-inefficient – the last thing they want for their homes. A complete outdoor kitchen is not an important priority to many buyers either, as 31 percent flat out discard the possibility of washing dishes, cooking, and keeping food refrigerated outdoors. For most buyers (62 percent), an outdoor grill will suffice.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org.